Is Jose Mourinho the Special One or not ?

Jose Mourinho

It has become a trend now that whenever Arsenal play against Chelsea, they don’t win.  It has become quite a theme between Arsenal and Chelsea, Wenger and Mourinho. If you look at Mourinho record against other 4 top teams in England, you can see he really is the special one. He has incredibly only 3 loses in 37 games. That makes him the best manager in Premier League for big games. Overall he has lead Chelsea in 252 games (first time and second time together). He won 167 and lost 33 games. He’s win percentage is 66, which is currently second only to Pellegrini. But is Mourinho really the special one, or is he just managing one of the best teams in a league.

 

Mourinho has branded Arsene Wenger a specialist in failure, but is Wenger really a specialist in a failure. I read an article where some researchers found out that money is the most important factor for success in football, while managers have at best 10 percent chance of influencing the results on the field. If you look at Mourinho, he managed best times in the world and won a lot of trophies, in a meantime Wenger wasn’t that successful. The difference was also in money. Mourinho had loads of money, while Wenger didn’t.

 

The thing is, that most of the clubs Mourinho managed were in a good shape even before he arrived. Porto was probably the only club who wasn’t a really top side after Mourinho started to manage it. Still the most important players like Deco and Ricardo Carvalho were already at the club, when Mourinho took over. Later careers of those players show that they were very good and Mourinho had simple luck of having them. At Chelsea he had a sugar daddy in Abramovic and a very strong squad inherited from Claudio Ranieri. Inter was the best club in Italy at the time Mourinho took over (a far cry from where they are now), and in Madrid he had one of the best teams ever, with the likes of Ronaldo and Kaka at the club. He returned to Chelsea before last season, where again he has everything he needs.

In every club he had the resources to buy the players he wanted, which Wenger didn’t have, and after every club he left, he could chose the club with the best team. What am I trying to say is that Mourinho was good at picking the best sides to manage. Arsene Wenger on the other hand, is at Arsenal for the past 18 years. If you are at the club for so long, you go through ups and downs.

You don’t have to be Einstein to realize, that trophy drought happened because of money shortage (building the stadium), which led to selling the best players every year. Mourinho is saying now, that Chelsea have became a selling club and that they aren’t as strong financially as they were before. I would agree with the latter but not with the former. Chelsea isn’t a selling club just jet, but they certainly aren’t so strong financially as they were before, thanks to the new financial fair play rules. As I said before, money is the biggest factor for success in football, and that’s why it’s going to be interesting to see how Mourinho can cope with less money.

Chelsea is currently top of the league and has the best striker in a league, but an injury to Diego Costa can change all that (that’s why they don’t want to let him go to play for Spain). If Costa gets injured, I just don’t see anyone who can replace him at Chelsea and neither does Mourinho or anyone else for that matter.

There is one statistical term called regression towards the mean. It basically means, if you have more
luck, you are bound to have less luck and if you have less luck, you are bound to have more luck. In the long run things even out. This progression towards the mean holds true for things, where you have less direct control, like managing football club. Last year Mourinho didn’t win anything, while Wenger won a trophy after nine years. Progression towards the mean is saying that Mourinho will become less successful, while Wenger will became more successful. Time will eventually tell if regression towards the mean holds true here.

All in all, I would say that Mourinho is good at picking teams to manage, but not special. I think that luck will eventually turn back on him and he will became less successful. I would like to see Mourinho stay in a club more than three years and watch if he can cope with teams going down and not just up. Wenger managed to build a stadium with his team going down, would Mourinho be able to do anything similar or would he do what he always does, leave the club.